Take Precautions
El Niño is only getting stronger…
What is El Niño?
El Niño is a natural climate pattern that shows up every couple of years when the surface waters of the central and eastern tropical Pacific warm up more than usual. It's part of a bigger cycle called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, and it usually starts building sometime between March and June, peaks around November to February, and runs its course over roughly nine to twelve months.
The name itself is almost cute. "El Niño" means "little boy" in Spanish. But don't let that fool you, because the effects can be felt on the other side of the planet. Once the Pacific heats up, it changes how air moves through the atmosphere, and that can drag droughts into one region while dumping extra rain on another thousands of miles away. One thing worth clearing up: El Niño isn't caused by climate change. It's a natural cycle. That said, a warmer planet overall can make its impacts hit harder.
Why is 2026 a big deal?
This year's El Niño isn't just another routine cycle. It's moving fast and building strong. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) says the event is already well established and is on track to become a "very strong" El Niño. Forecasters are now putting the odds that it sticks around through February 2027 at close to 100 percent, which is about as confident as WMO has ever been in one of these forecasts.
The numbers back that up. The Niño 3.4 index, which tracks ocean temperatures in the key stretch of the Pacific, went from around 1.5°C above normal in May through July, to 2.0°C by July, then kept climbing to somewhere between 2.2°C and 2.6°C above average by mid-August. Even more telling, the warmth isn't just sitting at the surface. In some spots, water temperatures well below the surface were running more than 8°C above normal in July and early August, which basically means there's plenty of fuel left for this thing to keep growing.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres didn't mince words about it, saying El Niño is being "supersized" right now and that the planet is heading into dangerous territory as ocean and air temperatures climb.
What does that mean on the ground? WMO's outlook for September through November points to above-normal temperatures across almost every landmass, plus the kind of rainfall swings you'd expect from a strong El Niño: more flooding risk in some places, more drought risk in others. To complicate things further, two other ocean patterns are lining up at the same time this year, a warming Indian Ocean and an unusually warm tropical Atlantic, which could either amplify El Niño's usual effects or throw them off in certain regions.
And the human toll is already showing up. The UN World Food Programme has warned that this El Niño could push nearly 50 million more people into acute hunger. That's part of why WMO, WHO (The World Health Organization), and other agencies have rolled out what they're calling their biggest joint mobilization yet, trying to get ahead of the risk with better forecasts and earlier warnings.
What to do to prepare?
There's no single fix here since El Niño plays out differently depending on where you live, but a few things are worth doing now rather than waiting.
Check your local forecast, not just the global headlines. A "very strong" El Niño globally doesn't automatically mean disaster where you live. Your national weather service will have the specifics that actually apply to you.
Prepare for both extremes. El Niño tends to bring extra rain to some areas and dry spells to others, often in the same season. Find out which side of that you're likely to be on.
Get ready for heat. Since most land areas are expected to run warmer than normal, the basics matter: drink enough water, check in on elderly neighbors or anyone at risk, and pay attention to heat warnings.
Keep an eye on food security. With tens of millions more people potentially facing hunger, anyone relying on rain-fed farming should watch crop conditions and pricing early, and look into support programs if things start to slip.
Know your emergency resources ahead of time. WHO has already flagged rising health risks tied to this El Niño. Figure out evacuation routes, local health contacts, and disaster plans before you actually need them, not during an emergency.
Don't treat this as a one-time check. El Niño is expected to keep strengthening into late 2026 and stick around into early 2027, so it's worth checking back on updated forecasts as the season goes on.
Sources:
World Meteorological Organization (WMO), press release, September 2026;
UN News, September 2026;
World Health Organization (WHO), Global Public Health Situation Analysis – El Niño 2026.
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